In less than 24 hours, the largest mixed martial arts promotion on the planet will set up shop in the Rose Garden for the very first time. The UFC’s journey to Portland was an improbable one. On the verge of financial collapse on multiple occasions throughout its 16-year history, MMA’s flagship organization now receives mainstream media coverage from ESPN and Sports Illustrated and holds sold-out events all over the world.
Can you tell I’m just a teensy bit excited for this?
Before I begin what is surely to be a horribly misguided preview complete with mostly incorrect winner predictions (sports betters, don’t say I didn’t warn you), I would like to address a certain member of the media who has apparently found it in his heart to give this naughty little sport of mine a second chance.
Earlier today, OSL sportsman Andrew Theen posted a nourishing and delicious Sports Scramble to this site. One of the links in the post lead to an article written by John Canzano of The Oregonian explaining his resistance to accepting MMA as a legitimate sport but claiming that he will be attending UFC 102 with an open mind. In the column, Canzano writes:
Referring to Royce Gracie as “Royce Grazie” in an MMA column is a lot like referring to “George Woshington” in a paper about the American Revolution (this is ignoring the fact that he spelled jiu-jitsu as “jujitzu” But then, who cares? There’s no difference between football and futbol, right?). Regardless of how well you articulate your point, you still deserve a big fat F for not caring enough to double back and check something so simple and so important. It would be different if it were a typo. This wasn’t. He used the name twice, and he spelled it incorrectly both times. Journalism is about getting it right, folks. It’s about checking your facts and editing your copy to the best of your ability BEFORE publishing, not after somebody informs you of your mistake. That’s called respecting your sources and your audience.
As I was typing this up, I checked back to see if the error had been corrected, and sure enough, it had. But that’s not the point. The mistake should never have been published in the first place. Canzano’s credentials speak for themselves. He has been honored as one of the country’s best sportswriters (this little whoopsie-daisy not withstanding…), and he has the hardware to prove it. But that doesn’t excuse screwing up the last name of the most important figure in the history of American MMA.
I’m not going to spend time defending the legitimacy of the sport, because that’s a seven-hour argument and it’s really not what we’re talking about. This is about a journalist claiming that he is reopening his mind to a sport that has been disrespected and snickered at by mainstream media since its inception, only to continue that tradition by screwing up the name of the most important MMA figure mentioned in his story. Are we actually supposed to believe Canzano when he says he’s giving the sport a second chance?
You’ll have to forgive me if I doubt his sincerity.
With that out of the way, I think it’s time we took a look at this card, ladies and gents. For the purpose of conciseness, we’ll stick to the PPV bouts:
Chris Leben (185) vs. Jake Rosholt (185)
This is a tough one to call. Rosholt is a three-time Div. 1 NCAA champion, and Leben’s left hand would probably set off a metal detector. It’s fairly simple: if Rosholt can take Leben down and hold him there before Leben finds a home for that lethal left, he’ll take a decision, no problem. That’s easier said than done, however, as Leben almost seems to enjoy taking punishment before ending his opponents’ nights with his best Tank Abbott impression.
Prediction: Rosholt avoids the big shot and grinds out a routine but boring unanimous decision.
Brandon Vera (205) vs. Krzysztof Soszynski (205)
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, an in-shape Brandon Vera is a very dangerous man. Fighting at light heavyweight, it’s almost a guarantee that a trim Vera will walk into the cage with plenty of gas for a three-rounder. By now, he’s had time to figure out the weight cut, and he should walk into the cage as the leanest, best Brandon Vera we’ve ever seen. If you’re Soszynski, this is bad news. Look for Vera to expose “The Polish Experiment” in the stand-up by using his reach and chopping his stocky opponent down with leg kicks before opening up with combinations. Vera should also have the edge in the clinch, where he will find the mark with short elbows and knees. Soszynski is a tough dude, but Vera’s talent will prove too much for him.
Prediction: Vera’s knee meets Soszynski’s jaw somewhere in the second round, scoring an impressive KO.
Nate Marquardt (185) vs Demian Maia (185)
Marquardt will be Maia’s toughest test to date, and I predict the Brazilian ground wizard will pass with flying colors. The winner of this one is probably next in line for a title shot after Dan Henderson takes a second crack at Anderson Silva. Nate is the prototypical freestyle fighter — good, but not great, at all facets of the game. The biggest question on the table is whether Maia can take the fight to the mat, and I think he absolutely can. Silva thoroughly out-wrestled Marquardt, and Maia is coming off a dominating performance against Chael Sonnen, wherein he tossed the Olympic alternate to the canvas like a grappling dummy. Once Maia secures top position, the end will come soon.
Prediction: Maia passes Marquardt’s guard in round two like it’s not even there and transitions to side control, eventually mounting the former King of Pancrase and finishing him with a straight arm bar.
Keith Jardine (205) vs Thiago Silva (205)
This one comes down to Silva failing to figure out Jardine’s timing. It’s a little tiresome at this point to refer to Jardine’s style as “herky-jerky,” so I’ll instead call it … weird. The deadly and powerful striking of Silva will be replaced with hesitation and frustration as Jardine scores with awkward hooks and choppy leg kicks. This fight will resemble Silva’s outing against Lyoto Machida, with the Brazilian failing to get off first and hitting nothing but air when he finally throws out of necessity. Jardine will not stand toe-to-toe with him as Houston Alexander did, and that spells disaster for Silva.
Prediction: Jardine scores effectively, though not often, and earns a unanimous decision via what most would hesitate to call “kickboxing.”
Main Event:
Randy Couture (220) vs Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (231)
This is a fight that should have happened last year to unify the heavyweight strap, and it’s a shame that it will now only be scheduled for three rounds. But better late than never, right? Both fighters are legends of the sport, and for good reason. Couture is a five-time UFC champion and Nogueira is the only man to hold both the UFC and PRIDE heavyweight titles. Both are masters of their domain. Couture has adapted his Greco-Roman wrestling for MMA arguably better than anyone else in the history of the sport. He loves to beat up his opponent in the clinch, wearing him out before slyly executing a leg trip or using the cage and slamming his foe to the mat. From there, his favorite position is unique: the half-guard. Again, he breaks his man’s spirit, scoring with brutal elbows, hammer fists and shoulder butts, biding his time until he can turn up the heat and finish the fight. Nogueira is famous for two things: his high-level jiu-jitsu and his ability to take shots that would make Rocky Balboa cover up. Nogueira is just as dangerous off his back as he is from the top — just ask Mark Coleman, Mirko Cro Cop or Tim Sylvia. His triangle choke may be the greatest ever displayed in a ring or cage.
As with any fight involving Randy Couture, there are those who will point to the age discrepancy. However, I think until Couture puts on a performance in which it is clearly evident that his skills have declined (not improved, as seems to be his calling card), he deserves the benefit of the doubt. Therefore, I don’t think age is an issue, and neither is weight. On the feet, I think this fight is a push. Both fighters posses solid boxing skills, but neither has one-punch knockout power. Couture holds a small edge in the kicking department, but I doubt that will play a big role in the fight’s outcome. It’s going to come down to two things: first, can Couture fend off all of Nogueira’s submission attempts? Second, can Randy use his wrestling to dictate where the fight takes place? I believe the answer to both of those questions is yes. Nogueira’s potent submission game will be smothered by “The Natural,” who hasn’t been subbed since 2001.
Prediction: Couture decides the time and place of the skirmishes, battering Nogueira from top position en route to a unanimous decision.
Whit’s Picks record: 0-0