We’ve sort of avoided Pac-10 Basketball so far mostly due to health concerns. Watching the games is a form of torture and can cause inexplicable health problems.. Thankfully Will Seymour subjected himself to some analysis and offered this guest post:
Basketball fans on the West Coast know that the Pacific-10 conference is way down this year. Not a single team is currently ranked in the top 25. Indeed, according to college stats guru Ken Pomeroy, the Pac-10 ranks well behind the other five BCS conferences. The conference scores a .79 (rounded out of a perfect of 1) far back of No. 5 SEC at .84. The ACC is the top dog at the moment with a score of .91.
Here’s a look at the team-by-team struggles so far:
- The Cal Bears began the season as the standard-bearers for the Pac-10, and marched into the 2K Sports Classic at MSG. They came out with their tail between their legs after losing to Syracuse and Ohio State. Losses to New Mexico and then No. 1 Kansas continued the tough schedule. Oski’s boys look to have righted the ship though, getting Jorge Guiterrez back from injury and winning their last three Pac-10 games.
- The Huskies had an impressive non-league portion of their schedule, the only blemishes being an overtime loss to Texas Tech in Lubbock and a neutral site loss to Georgetown. No shame in either of those. There is shame, however, in losing to Oregon on your home floor. Road sweeps by the Arizona and L.A. schools have put UW at 3-5 in conference. It’s not time to panic yet; a road in the Bay Area in a couple weeks would do wonders.
- Ah, UCLA. How the mighty have fallen this year. Seriously, though, the Bruins have lost a lot of talent to the NBA recently and now they are paying the price. Non-league losses include Cal State Fullerton, Long Beach State and Mississippi State. A surprise road win at Cal has boosted Ben Howland’s team to .500 in conference, but I don’t think this will be sustained.
- Arizona is a well-balanced team, with both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings that place them in the top 80 teams nationwide. The Wildcats had a rough beginning under first-year coach Sean Miller with the low point a double OT defeat at the hands of UNLV. The Pac-10 season has been similarly up and down. A loss at home to the Cougs spelled trouble, but the ‘Cats are on a three game winning streak, including a win in Tempe. Go figure.
- No longer able to sneak up and surprise opponents, the Beavers have taken a step back this year. I still like Craig Robinson’s 1-3-1 zone, but their best offensive playmaker besides Calvin Haynes is freshman Jared Cunningham. Nowhere did the inability to score show up more clearly than managing just 48 points in the now infamous 51 point to Seattle U. There have been no real surprises in conference, but the Beavs with need to come up with a couple to flirt with .500.
- The Ducks are a young team besides the mighty mite Tajuan Porter, so you never know what you’re going to get. Ernie Kent has continued to shuffle his lineup, trying to find the best combination of his promising individual pieces. Michael Dunigan looks much improved, but perhaps the most encouraging, Oregon seems to have found a creative point guard in Malcolm Armstead that allows Porter to be a shooting specialist again. With all the causes for optimism though, the Ducks have still dropped three games at home in conference including a shameful loss to OSU. A run in the Pac-10 tournament might be the difference as to whether Ernie gets to coach in the new building.
- The Sun Devils have probably been the conference’s most pleasant surprise behind leader Derek Glasser, (10 Pts, 5 ast per game). ASU is in the top 30 in the country in defensive efficiency, but its offense is pretty good too, thanks to balanced scoring from Glasser, Ty Abbott, Richard Kuksiks and others. The good work done by sweeping the Oregon schools on the road was undone by dropping home games to Arizona and Cal. Still though, a strong defensive team with senior leadership could be dangerous in the conference tournament.
- The Cougs are also a little farther along than I thought that’d be, thanks to 20 PPG from wunderkind Klay Thompson. Unfortunately, WSU is a long way from the scrappy defensive teams we grew used to under the Bennetts. The Cougars rank a poor 200th in defensive efficiency. A high-scoring game slipped away as a bench technical allowed Oregon to escape Pullman with a win, but Washington State has picked up road wins at Arizona and USC. Once Ken Bone gets some defensive talent around Thompson, the Cougs could come in a hurry, just not this year.
- USC will not be participating in the Pac-10 tournament thanks to a self-imposed postseason ban for recruiting violations. This will deprive fans of the opportunity to see one of the best defensive teams in the country as the Trojans rank No. 1 in defensive efficiency. The reason the men of Troy haven’t been making more noise is that they are woeful on offense. Their low scoring total is compounded by the fact they play at a snail’s pace, but they managed only 60 against the Cougs and just 45 against OSU. Not good.
– Picked to finish dead last, Stanford is actually doing OK, shaking off embarrassing losses to San Diego and Oral Roberts to hold serve to this point in the Pac-10 schedule, which is more than can be said for a couple teams. Unfortunately for the Cardinal, they don’t do anything well enough to make a serious run.
The overall picture isn’t pretty, but we’ve been here before. Back in 2004, the Pac-10’s Pomeroy rating was just under .70, behind the Mountain West and Conference USA. That year, Stanford was a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament, but six of the ten teams were outside of the top 100. So take heart, basketball fans. It’s been worse for the Pac-10, and it’s going to get better. In the meantime, at least the conference tournament should be fun.
Will Seymour is the sports editor for the Tillamook Headlight Herald.
