Oregon Sports Live

Hey everybody. Time to hop on the train to the poor house and listen to some picks from yours truly. Please remember not to bet your bottom dollar.

DUCKS (+3) over Trojans

I actually did a little double take when I saw this line, but that’s Autzen Stadium for you. In this instance, the spread is irrelevant, because I think the Ducks have the right tools to win the game outright anyway. The keys for the Ducks are simple. First, they have to establish LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner. If they don’t do that, then nothing else matters. Second, they have to put Matt Barkley on his back. Regularly. If they do both of those things, the fat lady will be singing the Oregon fight song. One more thing: if you’re an SC fan, now would be the time to get your money in on the favorite. If the line moves, it should move toward the Trojans, making them a bigger favorite as more folks are probably betting on the Ducks as an underdog at home. Ducks fans could stand to wait and lay down their money closer to Saturday, as they might gain a point or two if the line does indeed move.

THE BLAZERS FINISHING OVER .500 (-12.5) over Bill Simmons’ sports sanity

Really? 41-41? That’s your prediction? See, this is the problem with national sports media: any opinion offered is typically based on a few isolated instances during which the media member was exposed to the team. There are a lot of buzzwords thrown around loosely, and it typically makes no difference whether the prediction turns out to be true, because by that time the plebes will have forgotten all about it, and there will be a new topic of discussion on the table. Whoops, I think I just accidentally wrote the forward to John Canzano’s future autobiography. Guess the local guys aren’t totally exempt. Sorry about that. Back to Simmons: just out of curiosity, Bill, what makes you think that this team will suddenly stop listening to Nate McMillan just because Martell Webster is healthy and Kevin Pritchard turned Sergio Rodriguez, Ike Diogu and Shavlik Randolph into Andre Miller and Juwan Howard? I know you really, really want to be able to say “I told you so” about Greg Oden, but that’s no reason to throw all reason out the window, is it? Oh, you mean you didn’t watch all 82 games last year, as we did? You didn’t attend or listen to any of this year’s preseason games, as we did? You mean you spent all summer finishing your book and thinking of new quips about BronBron possibly signing with the Knicks while we were following the team? But I guess I’m neglecting that you have a super cool anonymous insider feeding you information that none of us have access to. My bad.

Edit: It was recently reported that Nic Batum will undergo surgery on his right shoulder to repair his torn labrum. This changes things, but I still can’t imagine this team losing 41 games, right? Right? God, maybe the Sports Guy does know everything.

Andre Miller’s loosey-goosey passing (+2.5) over NATE MCMILLAN’S OLDE TYME STUBBORNESS

So Blake is going to start. It’s not the end of the world, and Dre has said as much. If anything, it’ll probably serve as motivation and make him work even harder as the season starts. I’ll tell you a secret: I love it. No, really, I do. And it has nothing to do with whether Blake is better or even deserves that starting job. I think that eventually Andre will find himself starting, but I’m excited to see him come off the bench and provide a consistent spark — a change of tempo that Travis Outlaw could muster only occasionally last year. I want to see Dre distribute the ball and put the defenders on their heels while they try to catch a second wind late in the first quarter. I want to see him dump it down to Greg deep in the post, providing the young beast with a meaty reward for his hard work establishing position inside. I want to see him live up to his new nickname and direct the second unit, providing valuable leadership when Brandon is sipping some Gatorade from the bench. And I think that will happen. It might take a few weeks to iron out the kinks, but eventually Nate will learn to accept Dre for what he is: a risk-taker and a playmaker. No fear. No reservations. Screw it, there’s a man back, but I’m throwing this lob anyway because I know Travis can jump that high. That’s Andre Miller, and the Blazers will be a much scarier team to guard with him leading the charge.

BEAVERS (-9) over Bruins

Oregon State is only a nine-point favorite at home against UCLA? We are talking about the same squad that traveled to the LA Coliseum last week and gave USC all they could handle, aren‘t we? Last time I checked, UCLA has lost four straight and is winless in conference play. Their offense is inconsistent at best and ineffective at worst, and although their defense isn’t terrible, they can’t be expected to hold up for 60 minutes against the Speedy Gonzales twins. OSU is running away with this one.

THE WILD ONE (-21.5) over Any other color commentator in basketball

Everybody has one crazy uncle who feels the need to yell unintelligibly at no one in particular between gulps of bourbon during otherwise pleasant family functions. Or, for some of us, perhaps that man was our father. The point is, if you think you don’t have that important male figure in your life, then you’re not watching enough Blazers basketball. Mike Rice is a walking, talking goldmine of hilarious homerism, and I, for one, cannot wait for the season to begin. Can’t you just see the team celebrating a road win at some dive bar in Memphis, and then some biker starts giving Steve Blake a hard time, and immediately Ricey’s “papa bear” instincts take over and he’s biting off a chunk off the guy’s ear and fighting off Barrett and McMillan and Pritchard as he wildly slurs, “You dd-don’t talk bu-bu-bad abbbout BLAAAAKEEYYYY!!!”

Tomorrow night, The Wild One returns.

Chael Sonnen (+19) over UFC MATCHMAKER JOE SILVA’S NEED FOR A MIDDLEWEIGHT CONTENDER

Oregon product and former Olympic Greco-Roman alternate Chael Sonnen just beat Yushin Okami by unanimous decision at UFC 104 in Los Angeles. I can assure you, this was not the UFC‘s preference. Outside of Vitor Belfort, the Japanese judoka represents the last molecule of middleweight intrigue left within the still smoldering ashes of Demian Maia’s knockout loss to Nate Marquardt. Okami is the last man to defeat UFC Champion Anderson Silva, albeit by controversial disqualification. Now the division is left without an interesting match-up for The Spider. Silva will most likely chop Belfort down with leg kicks, proving his technical superiority. After that, there are really no new lands for the champ to colonize. Before his recent loss, Okami’s judo stylings symbolized the last hope for a style bugaboo that might confound the seemingly invulnerable Silva. The most likely scenario is a number-one contender fight between Dan Henderson and Marquardt, which will result in a championship rematch regardless of the outcome. The problem is, it’s difficult to see a rematch for either one going any differently than the first time around. Not exactly what I would call compelling pay-per-view.