Which Way Will Blazer Fortunes Tip This Season? Photo courtesy of nzgabriel's flickr stream.
Coming off a 54-win season and their first playoff birth since 2003, the young Portland Trail Blazers certainly have solidified themselves as a presence in the Western Conference for years to come. Yet, looking ahead to the 2009-2010 NBA season, Portland is not without question marks heading into training camp.
With the start of the Blazers’ camp looming on Monday and in light of OSL’s recent interviews at media day yesterday, it’s time to take a look at some tipping points and their potential consequences for the upcoming Blazer season.
1) Small Forwards
The Rub: If there is one great unknown entering training camp this year it must be the small forward position. Coach McMillan has stated that, following an impressive and unexpected rookie season and a strong Eurobasket showing in which he averaged 10 points and 5 rebounds, Nic Batum will enter training camp as the expected starter. After looking like a more complete player than ever before last preseason, Martell Webster will finally return to action after watching from the sideline with a fractured foot. Add to that a hungry Travis Outlaw in a contract year and you’re looking at quite a logjam.
However, as has been often repeated, finding time for too many minute-worthy players is a good problem to have. That said, the challenge for McMillan is to find the right combination of the right number of minutes to maximize the contributions of those players.
The Prediction: After the skills and poise that Batum has shown in the last year, it would take a miraculous training camp showing by Webster to dislodge the young Frenchman as the starter. Look for Nicolas to play a similar role to last year, but with an improved offensive repertoire. Fortunately, as Webster has previously stated, he is not as concerned about being the starter as he is about being on the floor at the end of the game. If Webster can return with his shooting touch, a keener nose for the basket, and greater effectiveness with the ball in his hands, he’ll get plenty of crunch-time minutes. Even if Outlaw shows increased awareness on defense and a desire to rebound the ball consistently, it appears a majority of his minutes will come at the backup power forward position.
2) The Growth of Greg Oden
The Rub: After an up-and-down rookie season, reports of Greg Oden’s off-season progress have been encouraging. In an interview with OSL on Wednesday, Assistant Coach Maurice Lucas said he believes that Oden has a greater understanding of how hard he has to work in this league in order to be an impact player. Another year of recovery from micro-fracture surgery and a summer of hard work (including a stint at the USA Men’s Select Team) should give Oden more tools to prove he can be a force on both ends of the floor. Most importantly, if Oden can use his leaner frame and quicker feet to continue to affect shots and gobble up rebounds without racking up fouls, his impressive per-36 averages can realize their true potential.
Still, even in light of positive reviews of Oden’s growth, the Blazers’ staff remains tempered in their expectations for the coming season. Also easing the pressure is the continued and consistent presence of Joel Przybilla. Who will be the starter on October 28th? Who knows – and frankly, who cares? The fact remains that the Blazers’ depth at the center position is strong and can grow even stronger if Oden is healthy and effective.
The Prediction: Oden’s scoring, rebounding, and shot-blocking statistics will show a significant improvement from last year, not because he improved drastically in any of these areas, but because his minutes will jump from 21 per game to 25-30 per game as a result of his fitness and a year of NBA ball under his belt. If there was one consistent aspect of Oden’s game last season, it was that he became more comfortable and effective the longer he could stay on the floor. Look for the big man to average upwards of 12 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocked shots per game.
3) Backup Power Forward
The Rub: After brief flirtations with Paul Millsap, David Lee, and others over the off-season, Portland enters the fall of 2009 with familiar faces at power forward: LaMarcus Aldridge…and various question marks. Sure, the Blazers have swingman Travis Outlaw, recently-signed journeyman Juwan Howard, and Summer League standout and athletic young man Dante Cunningham, but what do they really have? Outlaw is truly somewhere between a big, athletic small forward who can score, and a small, athletic power forward who can’t rebound. Juwan Howard is an NBA veteran and has certainly shown he can score and rebound the ball, but how much does he have left in the tank? Dante Cunningham looked great over the summer, but is he ready to provide bigtime backup minutes on a playoff-bound team (and, c’mon folks, it’s Summer League)?
The truth is, none of these players provide a surefire answer to questions raised in the playoffs about Portland’s toughness and ability to respond to physical play. Either one of these players is going to have to step up and fill that role, or the Blazers will have to acquire a more physical power forward during the season. If neither of those things happen, the team will be left with a big hole that other teams will take advantage of during the playoffs.
The Prediction: Coach McMillan sounded off about Dante Cunningham’s role in the upcoming season during a video chat on Wednesday. He seems to believe that Cunningham can and will play meaningful minutes for the team this year — certainly more than just garbage time. However, it will quickly become apparent that Cunningham is more of a project and less of a current viable option. Unless Juwan Howard shows a pep in his step and wins the role, the most likely result will be a mid-season trade for a Udonis Haslem/Ronny Turiaf-type backup for Aldridge. This will provide the Blazers with greater toughness and rebounding off the bench.